Net Zero Future for Australia after COP27: Transport Planning and Policies
Forkan Ali
Achieving the Net Zero emissions goal crucial to address climate change risks and future regional and urban planning and sustainable development. However, persuasively, sectoral transformations such as zero-emission transport systems are essential. To date, countries have taken a few steps to reduce transport-related emissions. Australia is one of the few countries emitting the highest level of transport-related GHGs and now has made efforts for this cause. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate how Australia responds to issues associated with Net Zero and its implications for transport planning and governance. Relying on the integrated review method, this study collects, analyses, and synthesizes carefully selected data from Net zero efforts in other countries and shows how these plans could help inform the analysis of the Australian situation. In so doing, this research maps out a practical pathway to initiate the transition away from fossil fuels combined with strategic planning and policymaking.
Emerging from physical climate science and operationalized through social, political, and economic systems, Net Zero emissions simply mean removing an equal amount of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere as we release them. Fankhauser and Smith et al. in their article on Nature Climate Change elaborate on this concept of Net Zero emissions.
The corollary of this result [relationship between cumulative net anthropogenic CO2 emissions and CO2-induced surface warming] is that CO2-induced warming halts when net anthropogenic CO2 emissions halt (that is, CO2 emissions reach net zero), with the level of warming determined by cumulative net emissions to that point. (Fankhauser, Smith et al. 2022)
The idea of Net Zero applies to a condition where anthropogenic GHG emissions are in balance with emissions cutbacks. In this condition, CO2 is yet produced but an equivalent quantity of CO2 is eliminated from the atmosphere while it is released into it, followed by zero increase in net emissions (Wood 2021). In the last couple of years “Net Zero” has been pragmatically envisioned as the key pillar of efforts to bring the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement into reality, the 2022 UNFCC Conference (held from 9-18 Nov 2022 in Egypt), commonly referred to as COP27, fails to accentuate a commitment to phase out fossil fuels but suggest a holistic approach to decarbonisation initiatives (Rannard 2022).[1] Achieving Net Zero emissions as a concept was cherished in Article 4.1 of the 2015 Paris Agreement and was again emphasized IPCC Special Report 2018 and restated in the 2021 Sixth Assessment Report (UNFCCC 2016[2] and 2021[3], IPCC 2018[4], IPCC 2021[5],). The current adoption of climate policies will decrease emissions, but not fast enough to reach international targets of limiting temperature. As the figure below shows, if the countries achieve their pledges, they will certainly progress, but we are still far off the way.
However, many developed and developing countries along with European Union have already adopted the Net Zero emissions target supported by several international initiatives including the Climate Ambition Alliance. Regardless of the Covid-19 Pandemic, the drive behind Net Zero has continued even with many non-state actors’ commitments to the target (Buckle, Ellis et al. 2020). There exists a growing gap between the several Net Zero pledges set forth and solid actions being employed in due course. Even if the declared Net Zero commitments are achieved, the total energy-related CO2 emissions will yet be about 22 gigatonnes in 2050 (IEA 2021[1]).
The Net Zero emissions target is a commitment that the countries realised its urgent significance and put forward to date giving welcome signals of intention. There also exist several questions regarding the concept and various relative targets of Net Zero and how to reach the targets with issues such as what technologies, plans, policies, and sectoral transformations are required (La Hoz, Doda et al. 2021 ). Studies show that countries are embracing various approaches across major aspects of their Net Zero targets (Rogelj, Geden et al. 2021). Some of the key aspects of distinction include the legal status, terminological differences, level of coverage, timeframe, and limits of the Net Zero strategic goal (Rogelj, Forster et al. 2019, Jeudy-Hugo, Re et al. 2021). Many of the OECD countries reflected the Net Zero target into a legal status while countries consider all GHG emissions under the target but countries like New Zealand excludes biogenic methane. Considering the sectoral scope of the Net Zero, it is economy driven but countries like Sweden exclude specific sectors such as LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry). Moreover, many countries exclude the international aviation and shipping sector except the UK. Most countries target to gain Net Zero by 2050 while countries like Finland, Maldives, Iceland, and Finland have earlier targets, and countries like Brazil, China, and Indonesia target to achieve it after 2050. Moreover, several countries like Switzerland, Iceland, Germany, and Sweden have expressed their “post-Net Zero “commitments to sustain Net Zero to reach a point of negative emissions. However, the information about countries’ preferred goals for emissions reductions is limited except in some countries from the EU such as Sweden (Jeudy-Hugo, Re et al. 2021). Though still poor in any parameters towards the reality of Net Zero, Australia's emissions reduction target of 43 percent and net zero emissions by 2050 has now been enshrined in legislation on 8 Sept 2022 with a strong low emissions technology stretch goal.
Today, accomplishing the Net Zero emissions goal has become a crucial effort for future regional and urban planning as well as policymaking. For this to be a reality, switching from fossil fuel to clean energy and clean energy products or clean energy system needs to be accelerated. For decarbonising our energy system, it is also vital to shift sectors for instance transport towards viable low-carbon technologies such as using electricity. Therefore, aiming for a zero-emission transport system is fairly effective in attaining a sustainable, resilient future for cities and the environment, considering the transport system’s large contribution to global emissions. Yet countries have taken a few steps to reduce transport emissions. Australia is one of the few countries that has already visioned and made efforts for this cause. For example, the “Zero-Emission Transition Plan for Transport Canberra” is one of the promising projects offering key drivers, prospects, and limitations of this greater intervention in climate change. Other mega-cities of Australia like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane are also visioning achieving this goal. The overall aim of this paper is to investigate how Australia responds to issues associated with Net Zero, demonstrating the Net Zero policy efforts made by Australian cities: the implications for transport planning, and governance. Adopting the integrative review method, this paper collects and analyses data from Net Zero efforts in other countries – while they are relatively uncommon, several European countries (for example) have at least produced decarbonization plans, this study shows how these plans could help inform the analysis of the Australian situation. Then this study seeks to analyse how Australia plans to address the problems such as alternative options to traditional fuel supply chains, service planning, and procurement, reflected in its newly adopted clean transportation planning and policies. In so doing, this research maps out a practical pathway and a knowledgebase to initiate the transition away from fossil fuels combined with strategic planning and policymaking.
[1] IEA (2021). Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for Global Energy Sector. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050. (Accessed on 27 Nov 2022).
[1] At the UN's COP27 summit, A historic deal has been struck. The rich nations are committed to paying poorer countries for the damage and economic losses caused by climate change, which has been a great achievement since the Paris Agreement.
[2] UNFCCC (2016). Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 13 December 2015. https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf#page=2. (Retrieved on 27 Nov 2022).
[3] UNFCCC (2021). Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_08_adv_1.pdf. (Retrieved on 27 Nov 2022).
[4] IPCC (2018). Special report: Global Warming of 1.50C. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/. (Retrieved on 27 Nov 2022).
[5] IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis report. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf.
